Murders from 1950 to 1994 averaged 7,036 per year during apartheid – from 1994 to 2003 murders averaged 24,206 py
16:17 Jan 1 2016 Pretoria, South Africa
Description
Murders from 1950 to 2000 – comparisons between ‘The Old South Africa’ murder rates’ and the “New South Africa’s
During a total period of 44 years up to 1994, when the ANC came to power, the murder rates in South Africa averaged 7,036 per year.
After apartheid ended in 1994: according to SAPS statistics, 193,649 murders were committed in the 8 years up to 2003 — an average of 24,206 murders per year from 1994 up to 2002/03”. It must also be noted here that the ANC regime has split up the deaths through violence statistics in TWO categories, namely ‘murder’ and ‘culpible homicide’. The ‘murders are located at the top of their list, and culpible homicides nearly at the bottom. The two statistics must be added together to get a more accurate picture of the murder/homicide rate in South Africa after 1994:
latest avaible police stats:
————————–http://www.saps.gov.za/resource_centre/publications/statistics/crimestats/2014/crime_stats.php
(Personal Research in the physical crime-archives by Rob Mc Cafferty (M. Ed), Communications Director, United Christian Action, published June 2003: the researcher personally examined the pre-1994 crime-reports from 1949 to 2000 — he painstakingly copied and input on the excell computer programme from Government archives as they were not available online:
————————
McCafferty has found that the murders reported to SAP-(S) from 1950-2000 equates to 309,583 murders from the year 1950 to 1993 =
(a total period of 44 years – averaging 7,036 per year).
— “Meanwhile according to SAPS statistics, 193,649 murders were committed in the 8 years after the “new democratic dispensation” from 1994
came to power – “thus giving an average of 24,206 per year from 1994 up to 2002/03″…
“However if we consider the Interpol statistics, which are only available on their website for the years 1995-1999 and 2001 (6 years),
the number of persons murdered in South Africa within those 6 years is 287,292 – averaging 47,882 per year…
“Clearly the new government is not winning the war on crime, especially violent crime.” (concluded McCafferty).
(PAGE GRABS OF RELEVANT PAGES/GRAPHS ATTACHED)
http://www.frontline.org.za/Files/PDF/murder_southafrica%20(5).pdf)
The ‘top researchers and experts’ who have been claiming since 194 that South Africa’s murder-rate has dropped after 1994 (including the pro-ANC ‘researchers’ at the murky agency Africheck)
are obviously lying.
And even one of the world’s acknowledged top-experts, African Studies history Professor Stephen Ellis at Leiden University, proves to be a master of understatement about South Africa’s murder rates: (writing in 2008)
— “According to the most recent available statistics, 18,487 murders were reported to the South African Police Service in the twelve months to March 2008… the number of murders before 1994 ‘WAS OFTEN LOWER THAN THIS’. (but providing no exact details).
SOURCE: “South Africa and the Decolonization of the Mind: page 14′ http://www.fsw.vu.nl/nl/Images/Oratie%20Ellis_tcm30-205502.pdf
That is just about the worst understatement Prof Ellis could have made – providing NO comparisons in his ‘research document’ to back up his vague
claim.
— However Frontline researcher Rob Mc Cafferty (M. Ed), Communications Director of the United Christian Action, personally input the crime-statistics on an excell-programme from the physical government archives
of the various crime-reporting agencies from 1950 to 2000 (not available online). He finally published his report online in June 2003:
http://www.frontline.org.za/Files/PDF/murder_southafrica%20(5).pdf:
His conclusions:
“This (Frontline) paper looks at a history of murder in South Africa.
— The official statistics in the New South Africa (since 1994) show that violent crime has had the greatest increase of all crime categories.
— However – murder is a sub-category of “violent crime”, and the official State statistics claimed (in 2003) that while since 1994, all sub-categories
of “violent crime” are on the increase, “murder is the only sub-category on the decrease”…
— However, these statistics are contested, for example, Interpol have South African murder statistics that are roughly double the official South African state statistics, while the South African Medical Research Council claim there are roughly a third more murders in
South Africa than the official police statistics reveal. This casts doubt on the New South African government’s claim that the murder rate has in fact
decreased since 1994.”
(Methology used by the Frontline researcher: He wrote: ” My library search at the University of Cape Town’s (UCT) Government Library to review original source documents in an attempt to make sense of the crime statistics prior to 1994, which are not readily available.
It was here that I sourced government archives of annual police reports dating back to 1950 which contain statistics on reported murders and also the Central Statistics Service: Statistics of Offence reports (CSS) which records all convictions of crimes. The courts forward these statistics to the CSS who in turn record them in reports. With these statistics I went back to the year 1949. From here I entered the data into excel worksheets, made calculations and
plotted graphs. I refer to the SAP and CSS reports as the “source documents” )
http://www.frontline.org.za/Files/PDF/murder_southafrica%20(5).pdf
He writes: (Page grab attached)
“The following graph (Figure 3: http://www.frontline.org.za/Files/PDF/murder_southafrica%20(5).pdf ) reveals the MARKED INCREASE in murders over
the past half century in South Africa. ((Note that the figures used in the analysis includes South West Africa, currently Namibia, which was a
protectorate of South Africa until 1990. These do not however make a substantial increase to the “Old South African” crime statistics, as they
averaged about 75 murders per annum).
—————————–
— The Murders reported to SAP-(S) from 1950-2000: the number of murders reported equates to 309,583 murders from the year 1950 to 1993 =
(a total period of 44 years – averaging 7,036 per year).
Meanwhile according to SAPS statistics, 193,649 murders were committed in the 8 years after the “new democratic dispensation” from 1994
came to power – thus giving an average of 24,206 per year from 1994 up to 2002/03, McCafferty writes.
However if we consider the Interpol statistics, which are only available on their website for the years 1995-1999 and 2001 (6 years),
the number of persons murdered in South Africa within those 6 years is 287,292 – averaging 47,882 per year…
“Clearly the new government is not winning the war on crime, especially violent crime.” (wrote McCafferty).
_____________________________
(See Figure 4, page 10 of Frontline report :
and Figure 5, page 11 ditto: Research by Rob Mc Cafferty (M. Ed), Communications Director, United Christian Action, published June 2003:
from personally examining the crime-reports deposited in the various physical Government archives (not available online):
http://www.frontline.org.za/Files/PDF/murder_southafrica%20(5).pdf):
==========================
(Methology used by researcher Rob McCafferty:
“I have read an overview of the literature on the topic, examining criminology journals, websites (especially those related to crime statistics, for example, the South African
Police Services (SAPS), Crime Information Analysis Centre (CIAC), Institute for Security Studies (ISS) and Interpol websites) as well as reviewing the major
newspapers on crime statistics and related issues. Particular references are made to the Mail & Guardian. Because the web searches proved incomplete, I did a library
search at the University of Cape Town’s (UCT) Government Library to review original source documents in an attempt to make sense of the crime statistics prior to 1994,
which are not readily available. It was here that I sourced government archives of annual police reports dating back to 1950 which contain statistics on reported
murders and also the Central Statistics Service: Statistics of Offence reports (CSS) which records all convictions of crimes.
The courts forward these statistics to the CSS who in turn record them in reports. With these statistics I went back to the year 1949.
From here I entered the data into excel worksheets, made calculations and plotted graphs.
I refer to the SAP and CSS reports as the “source documents”.
Problems with crime statistics in general:
“The year 1994 is used as a base year, as detailed and accurate crime statistics from station to national level were first made publicly available by the SAPS in that year.”
(Sibusiso Masuku, p.17.’For better and for worse’: South African crime trends in 2002)
McCafferty writes: “It is difficult to get crime statistics prior to 1994. For example, on the South African Police Services (SAPS) official website, they only have crime statistics from 1994
onwards (the year of the “New South Africa”). However I managed to access original source documents, which includes SAP annual reports going back to 1950, and CSS 4 reports which documents both the number of prosecutions and convictions, going back to 1949. (see p.15 for details).
”
News Source Link
http://www.frontline.org.za/Files/PDF/murder_southafrica%20(5).pdf
http://www.fsw.vu.nl/nl/Images/Oratie%20Ellis_tcm30-205502.pdf
http://www.saps.gov.za/resource_centre/publications/statistics/crimestats/2014/crime_stats.php